The Guide to Tuesday

After a solid start to the week with Chelsea and The Rags, we can target one likely winner on this Tuesday.

Napoli v. Real Madrid (@Stadio San Paolo; Naples, Campania)                                                         2:45 EST start

Since Napoli has been hot lately, taking down a strong Roma side in a recent fixture, this play won’t be one where we target a specific result, yet the first targeting of a soccer over/under I have done so far.  Napoli at home this year has seen 2.5+ goals in 50% of their matches and Real Madrid have seen 2.5+ in 83% of their away matches.  Real Madrid does an amazing job of creating chances while not hoarding possession (they have only held over 60% possession one time this year).  On top of this, in the first fixture of the Champion’s League 2 leg series  – as the home team v. Napoli – Real Madrid was able to produce 20 shots on only 50.2% of possession.  As said this is the second leg of the series (1st competition finished Real Madrid 3 – 1 v. Napoli as the home team). What this tells us that if Real Madrid is able to net one on the road here, Napoli will have to push heavily to gain ground on the goal differential (that weights away goals heavier than home ones) and this could leave Napoli exposed to the quick striking counter attack of Real Madrid.  There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Real Madrid’s last 7 Champion’s League games and they have been able to net AT LEAST 2 in each one of those contests.  Now with Gareth Bale back, look for a high scoring contest that at worst will land us a push with the 3 goal over/under.

PICK: Real Madrid v. Napoli Over 3 Goals (-140)

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